Assumptions About Over-Population – What to Believe?

Assumptions can be the downfall of the best laid plans

It’s been a while since my last post. I could blame it on the extreme cold, snow, freezing rain and ice that we have experienced over the last few weeks. They could be good excuses, but that’s all they are, excuses. For a number of reasons, I did not have enough wood cut, split and stacked to dry before fall as I normally do.

That would not have mattered if, as in normal years, the ground froze before Christmas. That’s when I usually get into our woodland and haul out dead Ash trees. That didn’t happen so I have been spending much more time on wood than I planned.

It’s been a good lesson on the consequences of inadequate preparation and assuming conditions will be the same as in previous years. So the purpose of this post is to get you thinking on how conventional wisdom and assumptions by supposed experts can be disastrously wrong.

Remember the predictions a few years ago that the hole in the ozone layer would cause catastrophic climate change and possibly the end of life on earth. Well that assumption was wrong.

Assumptions on Over-population

The United Nations has long been considered the authority on estimating the future global population. Current projections put the population of the world at 11 Billion by 2100.

That figure is arrived at by using current fertility, death and migration rates for each country and extrapolating the results for a given period in the future.

Canadian Journalist John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker, a political scientist challenged the assumption that the global population will continue increasing at its current rate.

They found that the experts at the UN have failed to include two factors that have a huge influence on human reproduction rates and future population levels:

• Increasing numbers of educated women
• Urbanisation

The two have published a book Empty Planet in which they explain why they believe that instead of increasing to 9 Billion by 2050, the population will start to decline around that time. They are concerned that this decline in global population could lead to the extinction of the human race. Not from war, disease, alien invasion or natural disaster but from failure to reverse the trend in time. You can read more here on Wired.com

Thanks to conventional wisdom, the mainstream media and what the authors call “vertical knowledge” most of us have believed for many years that the population will continue to increase and that over-population is a certainty.

The Effect of False Over-population Assumptions

National economies, infastructure and business strategies are all created on the assumption that the current trend will continue.

What happens if it doesn’t? If the authors projections are more accurate than the United Nations?

It won’t affect Seniors or my generation of Babyboomers too much, we will all be dead or in our late eighties by then. It could have major implications for Gen Xers’ retirement incomes by 2050. The effect on Millenials and Post-Millenials will be severe. Many of them will be in their peak earning years and millions yet unborn will be starting the income earning phase of their lives.

Declining populations will theoretically mean a declining work force and therefore more job opportunities. However, this will be offset by automation and lower demand for products and services from a smaller customer base.

The decline in reproduction rates will spread the ageing of the population that we are experiencing in developed economies to the developing nations. As those countries’ population growth rates slow down, we can expect lower rates of migration to the West and fewer children born to those that do immigrate. That will accelerate the decline in North America, Europe and parts of Asia. Immigration is the only reason these populations are not declining already.

The implications for practically every type of business and organisation are enormous and will threaten the sustainability of many industries. The most obvious are housing, construction, food production, education, day-care, tourism and travel.

Some businesses may benefit in the short term, others will not. Investments in funeral homes and memorial production might be a wiser choice than in day care centres and baby clothing.

Conclusion

There is compelling evidence that the Global population will soon start declining. It is happening already in some parts of the world.

The consequences will be huge, if they will not happen in your lifetime, they will in your children’s or grandchildren’s.

Have you based your plans on assumptions? What do you need to do to protect your business, retirement planning, investments, estate planning, property ownership if over-population is a myth?

What other popular assumptions or examples of Vertical Knowledge need to be challenged?

Leave a comment with your views.

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